Social Security’s Projected 2027 COLA Sees Minor Update After Inflation Report

A decline in inflation has slightly lowered the projected 2027 Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) for Social Security beneficiaries.

According to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% last month, while the annual inflation rate eased to 3.4%.

Senior Citizens League Revises 2027 COLA Forecast

In its latest update, The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) reduced its estimated 2027 COLA from 3.8% to 3.6%. The revised projection remains close to the organization’s previous forecasts, which were:

• April: 3.9%
• May: 3.8%
• June: 3.8%

TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton said inflation has remained unpredictable, but the group’s forecasting model is designed to avoid reacting to short-term price swings, helping keep projections relatively stable.

What a 3.6% COLA Could Mean for Retirees

Even with the slight reduction, a 3.6% COLA would still exceed the 2.8% increase Social Security recipients received this year.

If the estimate becomes official, the average monthly Social Security benefit would increase by nearly $70, reaching approximately $2,007.28.

The Social Security Administration is expected to announce the official 2027 COLA in October. If TSCL’s estimate proves accurate, it would represent the largest annual adjustment since the 8.7% COLA in 2023.

TSCL Continues to Call for Changes to COLA Formula

TSCL bases its forecasts on the same formula used by the Social Security Administration, which relies on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners (CPI-W).

However, the organization argues that CPI-W does not accurately reflect the expenses older Americans face, particularly for healthcare, housing and groceries.

Instead, TSCL supports using the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E), which measures spending patterns of Americans aged 62 and older and is considered more representative of retirees’ everyday costs.

Social Security 2100 Act Remains in Congress

Lawmakers have reintroduced the Social Security 2100 Act, which proposes using CPI-E to calculate future COLA increases.

Despite the proposal’s return, TSCL believes the legislation faces significant challenges, as both the House and Senate versions remain under committee review.

The projected 2027 Social Security COLA has been trimmed to 3.6% following lower inflation, though it would still provide a larger increase than this year’s adjustment.

The official COLA announcement is expected in October, while debate continues over whether the calculation method should better reflect the spending habits of older Americans.