Posthaste: Canada’s Biggest City Plunges in North American Ranking in Just One Year
Toronto was once the fastest-growing metropolitan area in North America, but new research shows Canada’s largest city has fallen sharply in the rankings.
In just one year, the city dropped to No. 412 out of 435 metropolitan areas, highlighting a major slowdown in population growth and a growing outflow of residents to other parts of Canada.
Toronto Falls From First to Near the Bottom
The Centre for Urban Research and Land Development at Toronto Metropolitan University has tracked population growth across Canadian and U.S. metropolitan areas since 2020.
With the exception of the pandemic period, Toronto had regularly ranked among the fastest-growing metro areas in both countries. In 2024, it placed first. By 2025, however, Toronto had fallen to 412th place, marking one of the most dramatic drops in the study.
Calgary and Edmonton Lead Canada’s Growth
While Toronto slipped sharply, Calgary and Edmonton became the only Canadian metropolitan areas to appear in the top 10.
Calgary ranked seventh, while Edmonton placed eighth. In the United States, Houston and Dallas took the top two spots for population growth in 2025.
Montreal and Vancouver Also Decline
Toronto was not the only major Canadian city to fall in the rankings.
Montreal, which ranked fifth in 2024, dropped to 25th in 2025. Vancouver, previously sixth, declined even further to 92nd.
The trend suggests that Canada’s largest and most expensive urban centres are losing some of their population-growth momentum.
Canada’s Post-Pandemic Population Boom Slows
Canada experienced a historic population surge after the pandemic, with growth reaching 3.2 per cent in 2023, the fastest pace in decades. Reuters reported that the increase was driven largely by temporary immigration.
Since then, federal policy changes have reduced immigration targets and lowered the number of non-permanent residents. Statistics Canada reported that the number of non-permanent residents fell by 117,879 in the first quarter of 2026, based on preliminary estimates.
Greater Golden Horseshoe Growth Slows Sharply
Population growth in the Greater Golden Horseshoe, with Toronto as its centre, averaged about 313,000 people per year in the three years before 2025.
That growth then slowed dramatically to about 40,000, according to the analysis cited in the original report.
Immigration Is Not the Only Explanation
Researchers Diana Petramala and Frank Clayton said Toronto’s fall cannot be explained only by reduced federal immigration targets.
Toronto still remains one of the country’s leading destinations for newcomers from abroad. Toronto and Montreal were still among the top Canadian metro areas for net international migration in 2025.
Domestic Migration Is Draining Toronto’s Growth
The larger issue appears to be domestic out-migration.
In 2025, Toronto gained about 53,000 residents through international migration but lost around 77,000 residents to other parts of Canada.
Researchers said Toronto’s increasingly unaffordable housing market appears to be pushing many residents to relocate elsewhere.
Alberta Cities Attract More Canadians
Calgary and Edmonton have become major destinations for people moving within Canada.
Edmonton gained about 15,000 residents from domestic migration, while Calgary added roughly 8,000 residents from within the country.
However, no Canadian metropolitan area made the top 10 for domestic migration across North America. That list was dominated by U.S. Sun Belt states, including Florida, Arizona, Texas and the Carolinas.
Canadian Banks Deliver Strong Second-Quarter Performance
The report also highlighted a powerful second-quarter performance from Canadian banks.
Strategists at National Bank of Canada said the sector came close to a historic rally. The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 6.4 per cent during the quarter, while financial stocks surged nearly 30 per cent.
According to the note, the last comparable bank rally was in the second quarter of 2009, when banks rebounded 35.5 per cent after losses from the global financial crisis.
Bank Valuations Reach Rare Levels
The rally pushed the forward price-to-earnings ratio for Canadian banks to around 16 times earnings, which the strategists described as the highest level since the late 1980s.
The sector is now trading at a higher valuation multiple than the broader TSX Index for the first time on record, according to the market commentary.
ARC Resources Shareholders Vote on Shell Deal
The report also noted that ARC Resources Ltd. shareholders were set to vote on a major takeover by Shell PLC.
The deal is structured as a stock-and-cash transaction valued at approximately $22 billion, including assumed net debt, according to ARC’s announcement.
Reuters later reported that ARC shareholders approved Shell’s acquisition proposal, with 99.54 per cent of votes cast in favour of the deal.
Key Market Data and Earnings
The day’s major economic data included U.S. inflation figures for June and the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index.
Major U.S. financial institutions were also scheduled to report earnings, including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Citigroup.
Giving to Charity More Effectively
The article also pointed readers to financial planner Ted Rechtshaffen’s advice on charitable giving.
He noted that many people may be able to donate more than they realize because tax credits can significantly reduce the true cost of giving. Depending on a donor’s situation, the after-tax cost of giving one dollar to charity may range from only a few cents to about 60 cents.
Financial Post Reader Resources
Readers interested in Canada’s energy sector were directed to FP West: Energy Insider, a subscriber-only newsletter offering deeper reporting and analysis.
The report also invited readers with questions about retirement, portfolio adjustments, wealth-building or household budgeting to contact wealth@postmedia.com for possible inclusion in a future Family Finance story.
Mortgage Insights
The article also promoted mortgage strategist Robert McLister’s Financial Post coverage, which helps readers understand mortgage trends, financing options and rate opportunities.
His mortgage-rate page tracks some of Canada’s lowest national mortgage rates and is updated daily.
Toronto’s dramatic fall from North America’s fastest-growing metro area to near the bottom of the rankings reflects a major shift in Canada’s urban growth story. While lower immigration targets have slowed population gains, the bigger issue for Toronto appears to be residents leaving for more affordable parts of the country, especially Alberta.
At the same time, Canadian banks are enjoying a powerful market rally, ARC Resources shareholders have backed Shell’s takeover, and investors are watching key U.S. inflation data and major bank earnings for the next signals in the market.
